Weekly RP Data Australian house price update

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ScreenHunter_02 Feb. 13 11.55

By Leith van Onselen

In the week ended 21 November 2013, the RP Data-Rismark 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, was unchanged. The flat result followed last week’s 0.1% fall (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_369 Nov. 21 17.45

Values rose in three major capitals and fell in two (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_370 Nov. 21 17.46

Values are up 0.25% in November, with all major capitals except Melbourne recording increases (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_371 Nov. 21 17.47
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Since the end of last year, home values have risen by 8.51% at the 5-city level, with all markets experiencing gains (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_372 Nov. 21 17.48

Over the past 12 months, values have risen by 8.07% at the 5-city level, again with all major markets experiencing increases (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_373 Nov. 21 17.49

The next chart plots the daily movements on a 14-day moving average, in order to smooth volatility. As you can see, the uptrend continues, driven primarily by strong gains in Sydney and to a lesser extent Melbourne (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_374 Nov. 21 17.50
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Values are up 2.3% since the 2010 peak at the 5-city level, driven primarily by strong gains in Sydney, with Perth values also up modestly and all of the other major markets still in negative territory (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_375 Nov. 21 17.51

However, major capital home values have now gained 10.5% since bottoming nationally in May 2012, with all capitals rebounding from their respective troughs (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_376 Nov. 21 17.52

Note: readers are advised not to read too much into short-term movements in the RP Data daily index. This index is volatile and not seasonally adjusted, hence it can give false readings when interpreted over a very short timeframe. There is also evidence suggesting the RP Data daily index is a lagging indicator for the quarterly ABS house price series (see here). Caveat emptor.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.