Trade deficit narrows on record China exports

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By Leith van Onselen

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released trade data for the month of September, with Australia recording a seasonally-adjusted trade deficit of $284 million. The result beat analysts’ expectations, which had expected a trade deficit of $350 million.

It was the 21st monthly trade deficit and followed the $693 million deficit recorded in August (revised down from $815 million) and the $1,413 million deficit recorded in July (revised up from $1,375 million). The next chart shows the quarterly breakdown, which suggests a slight drag on the September quarter GDP:

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In seasonally adjusted terms, exports rose $124m to $27,309m, whereas imports fell $285m (1%) to $27,593m, mostly on the back of lower consumption goods.

Australia’s biggest export commodity – iron ore (28% share) – rose by $120 million in September to a new record high, as did Australia’s third biggest export – natural gas (6% share) – which rose by $41 million over the month. By contrast, Australia’s second and fourth biggest export commodities – coal (15% share) and gold (5% share) – fell by $68 million and $41 million respectively (see next chart).

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Exports to China rose marginally over the month (up $7 million to $8,654 million) to a new record high, with its share of total exports rising to 38% (also a record). Exports to the second biggest market – Japan (18% share) – fell by $382 million, whereas exports to Korea (7% share) and India (3% share) – Australia’s third and fourth biggest markets – offset each other (see next chart).

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As always, Western Australia dominated the nation’s exports. It alone accounted for 48% of Australia’s merchandise exports in September, with its exports also rising by 1% over the month. Exports from Queensland also rose by 3% (see below chart).

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Again, Western Australia continues to be the state driving the nation’s trade balance, although Queensland and South Australia are also marginally in the black. By contrast, Victoria and New South Wales remain heavily in deficit:

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Finally, Australia’s services trade balance improved marginally in September (+$30 million) despite a small decline in net tourism exports (-$13 million):

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unconventionaleconomist@hotmail.com

www.twitter.com/Leithvo

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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