Roy Morgan Research (RMR) has released its weekly consumer confidence index, which retraced for a fourth straight week after recently hitting two-and-a-half year highs.
Over the week ended 9-10 of November, the RMR index fell by 0.5 points to 120.0, with a serious decline in confidence in the longer-term more than offsetting increasing confidence in the short term (see next chart).
The index is now down 4.2 points (-3.4%) from the high reached in the weekend of 12-13 October, although it remains elevated relative to recent experience.
According to Gary Morgan:
“Consumer Confidence is virtually unchanged this week at 120.0 (down 0.5pts) after the RBA left interest rates unchanged at a record low 2.50%. The largest movement this week was an increasing number of Australians (22%, up 6%) that say they expect ‘bad times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years. However, this rise was offset by increasing numbers of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months (38%, up 3%) and also expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years (39%, up 1%).
“Of greater concern is the large number of Australians that are either unemployed (1.33 million – 10.7%) or under-employed (1.1 million – 8.6%) – a total of 2.4 million Australians (19.3%) according to the latest Roy Morgan October employment estimates.
“Federal Parliament returns today for the first time since the Coalition won a clear victory at September’s Federal Election. The most important task for the new Parliament is to implement sensible industrial relations policies and reforms that improve labour productivity in Australia and provide real opportunities for the many unemployed and under-employed Australians to find work.”
Here’s how the RMR consumer confidence index is now tracking against the monthly Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index, which is due for release tomorrow:
