New home sales take a breather (cough)

From the HIA today:

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New Home Sales Take a Breather in October

After reaching their highest level in over two years in September, new home sales dropped back in October 2013 said the Housing Industry Association, the voice of Australia’s residential building industry.

“We shouldn’t make too much of one monthly fall in new home sales, following on as it does from two strong results which led to the highest volume since June 2011,” commented HIA Chief Economist, Dr Harley Dale.

“Over the three months to October 2013 the volume of detached house sales increased in all five surveyed states, while the downward trend evident in multi-unit sales since late last year looks to be reversing,” Harley Dale said.

“That’s a good profile for a leading indicator of new home building activity heading into the end of the year,” remarked Harley Dale.

The HIA New Home Sales report, a survey of Australia’s largest volume builders, showed that total seasonally adjusted new home sales fell by 3.8 per cent in October 2013 following a rise of 6.4 per cent in September. In October this year there was a decline of 4.6 per cent in detached house sales which followed two consecutive monthly gains. Meanwhile the sales of multi-units turned in growth of 1.4 per cent in October, a very good result given the 19.9 per cent jump recorded for the previous month.

“It will be important to observe a second leg of upward momentum to new home sales in the months ahead. This outcome would signal further growth in new residential construction activity in 2014 in what will remain a very low interest rate environment,” noted Harley Dale.

In the month of October 2013 private detached house sales increased by 17.4 per cent in South Australia and rose by 3.3 per cent in Queensland. Detached house sales fell in October in New South Wales (-4.6 per cent), Victoria (-13.2 per cent), and Western Australia (-1.2 per cent). Over the three months to October 2013, detached house sales increased in all five surveyed states. The largest increase over the three months to October this year was in South Australia (+10.5 per cent), followed by Victoria (+6.0 per cent), Western Australia (+5.3 per cent), Queensland (+5.1 per cent), and New South Wales (+2.0 per cent).

Looks more like a peak to me. New dwelling finance hasn’t grown in six months:

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We need bigger, stronger house price rises. Hurry!

Comments

  1. We need bigger, stronger house price rises!

    Finally you’ve seen the light. Hallelujah, Brother.

  2. After postering a blundered housing affordability index all over Fairfax media, the HIA print this?

    Talk about burying the lead.

  3. The headline should be “Second Highest Sales Level in Two Years” and with the election etc you would expect some holding back wouldn;t you?. Does it really look like a peak (cough)already?

  4. Capturing just 6500 sales the HIA new homes sales data is so flawed, deficient and misleading as to render it irrelevant.

    The more interesting and useful number is the ABS Sept new dwelling approvals at a 3yr high of 16,000. Annualised at 192,000, are we seeing new dwelling construction going to new level?

    Genuine question for those in the game. What comes first, the approval or the sale?