Honeymoon schmoneymoon

honeymoon-bad

From the AFR:

In the first The Australian Financial Review/Nielsen poll since the September 7 election, Labor leads the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis by 52 per cent to 48 per cent, a post-election swing towards Labor of about 6 percentage points.

Labor’s primary vote rose 4 points from its election result to 37 per cent and the Coalition’s fell 5 points to 41 per cent.

In a finding which will give Prime Minister Tony Abbott pause for thought, should he be considering an early poll on climate change, 57 per cent of voters believe Labor should vote to abolish the carbon tax.

But the most popular alternative is Labor’s proposal to move to an emissions trading scheme (ETS). Just one in 10 voters support the Coalition’s direct action policy.

Voters marked down the Coalition over its secretive asylum seeker policy, with 42 per cent approving the government’s handling of the issue and 50 per cent disapproving.

Voters are split on the Coalition’s other policy priority, abolishing the mining tax, with 46 per cent supporting its abolition and 47 per cent opposed.

…Nielsen poll director John Stirton said Labor’s two-party lead 10 weeks since the election made it the earliest ever for an opposition to hit the front after a change of government.

Roy Morgan has been tracking a similar lack of honeymoon for the Coalition:

5306-vote-2pp.161433

 

My own view is that the Coalition is making exactly the same mistake that Labor did. It is putting politics ahead of the nation across its platform.

Comments

  1. Proof positive yet again that Liberal didn’t win the election, Labor lost it.

    Wait till you see the polls if TestosterTone starts listening to the Ageing Crisis drivel that has become the topic-de-jour for the economic chattering class of late.

    • Get a grip. Fact is it needs to be spoken of as it is a time bomb headed our way. We can either bury our heads in the sand and denounce it as you seem happy to do until it blows up at even higher cost or we can face it head on with the inevitable tough choices required.

      I’m guessing your stance is vested interest. It will impact me too but it will hurt my children more and I feel it’s important to pass on good legacy rather than exploding mines. A reversal of the selfish Australia we have become so quickly in the last 10-15 years.

      Anyway fill your boots. Quite rightly LVO will continue to press the case for fixing the problem where you can interject with the chattering classes insults while ignoring what is a genuine problem.

      • You blokes just don’t get it, do you?

        I’m not ignoring what is a genuine problem.

        I am simply not prepared to hitch my wagon to the first simplistic, unrealistic proposals that come along, made by people who, in general, specialise in making simplistic, unrealistic proposals.

        “Work longer, mortgage your house, pay more tax” – is that all you’ve got?

        Whatever happened to “think outside the box”?

        Is there no questioning of the status quo these days – other than that which involves interfering in the lives of others?

        A reversal of the selfish Australia we have become so quickly in the last 10-15 years.

        You got that one right – and the time frame is very telling.

        I’m guessing your stance is vested interest.

        Yeah, well, keep on guessing – even though you’re obviously not very good at it.

        …where you can interject with the chattering classes insults…

        After some of the insults I’ve seen hurled at our senior citizens of late, I’d say the chattering class is getting off pretty lightly.

        • “Work longer, mortgage your house, pay more tax” – is that all you’ve got?

          Whatever happened to “think outside the box”?
          In the current system, “work longer, mortgage your house, pay more tax” *is* thinking outside the box.

  2. GunnamattaMEMBER

    My view is that ten weeks in we have a government in crisis, and facing a considerable degree of policy paralysis because it lacks cojones to identify and stare down a load of vested interests, and knows when it acts with ideology it is going to have a lot of unhappy campers out with the tar and feathers.

    • Governments are usually at their best early in their first term. If this is the best of the Abbott government we are in for a rough three years.

      Bring on the DD!

      • Lorax you’re suffering a bad case of premature ejacelection. If still afflicted in three years consult your doctor.

        • Hey its our Putin from the South that wants to play hard ball over repealing the carbon tax before Christmas. If its so important for him to get it done quickly then lets have a DD election now.

          What’s that? Lost your bottle Tony?

    • Don’t get too excited. Howard struggled in his first term and appeared to be aiming barrels at both feet, promised a great big new tax and still won in 1998.

      Certainly the LNP are struggling – mainly because they have not noticed that reality does not match their over- heated description of it from opposition and the economic tricks that worked for Howard are spent.

      There is a good chance they will work all this out and change their approach well before the next election. If they do they will be hard to beat unless the ALP does what it could not do between 1996-2007, be credible on economics. Remember Rudd in 2007 – ‘on economics I am like Howard’ – is that the best they could after 11 years? Already, we have ALP turnips on the loose mouthing mindless bank industry rubbish their shiny suited Melbourne Club ‘new best friends’ are feeding them.

      Of course if the LNP do not wake up – Hello Joe ‘boy in the bubble’ Hockey – AND the ALP grow a brain rather than wait for Oz to get bored by the LNP – then the next election might be interesting.

      The ALP may have lost the last election but the issue is whether they can win an election.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        agreed. although I am not sure the government is cut out for managing the economy the way it is and the way it is going. Keating and Hawke had set that Howard government up for a productivity dividend. This government is more akin to the 1983 or 1980 government, and I am not sure they can carry it off..

        I completely agree that the ALP needs to be able to sell the politics of a credible economic narrative to be able to make anything of it. And I have seen nothing to indicate they could, as yet.

        • Let’s hope that a few years in the Opposition wilderness will sharpen their minds.

          Not just for the sake of the ALP – but for all of us.

          No matter who wins the next election – please, please let it be a contest of ideas worthy of the 21st century.

        • Necessity may well be what wakes up the govt and forces them to face economic reality.

          The desire to hold onto power is a powerful incentive to learn.

          I think the odds are they will learn rather than do a Fraser.

          Tough economic times can play well for encumbents as they make them act like grown-ups – usually – and the public become quite conservative.

          Hawke Keating ran hard on ‘times are tough, who do you trust’

          • I agree with your sentiment Pfh.
            Reform is much easier when the pain is being shared across society, although I am skeptical that the Toned Abs/Ponzi Joe could successfully adopt a reformist platform – certainly not in the same class as Hawke/Keating.

        • This governemtn will also get a productivity dividend from the increased resources output as projects come on stream and workers are laid off as the capital investment nd construction stages give way to production.

          Trouble is they will also get a tendency to unemployment and lower wages for skills engaged in the resources capex boom to contend with.

  3. Judging by the Roy Morgan poll graph, the election was extremely badly timed for Labor or people reacted positively to the demise of Rudd as leader the moment the election was over. It’s the latter, of course, which supports the view that Labor lost the election rather than the Coalition having won it. And of course that means the double dissolution threat will be a hollow one. Tony is in for a tough ride.

  4. If the Libs were to do what they said they’d do, they’d probably crash housing, and have to wear the fall out of the bubble they created.

    So much for tough Tony, all we’ve heard about so far is them being tough on minimum wage workers and setting retirement back another 3 years. Where’s the structural reforms? Oh no, the rich might suffer under that.

    It’s amazing how these people can make a bunch of slimy unionists and hypocritical chardonnay socialists look alright.

        • “This site is ground zero for chardonnay socialists.”

          Goodie must not get out much (or struggles with the meaning of the concept) if he/she thinks most of the bloggers and commenters on MB are Chardonnay socialists.

          Or perhaps from goodie’s border patrol everyone looks the same – socialist!

          • Goodie must not get out much (or struggles with the meaning of the concept) if he/she thinks most of the bloggers and commenters on MB are Chardonnay socialists.
            From the way the term is thrown around here, the only conclusion I have been able to come to is a “chardonnay socialist” is someone who thinks there’s some role for Government is society but isn’t dirt poor.

      • Goody goodie – you make a valid observation with a sub-element of commenters here. Don’t know about the Chardonnay though, certainly not the good stuff – more likely the cheapest cask from Aldi 😉 one can just tell some of these dudes don’t like to part with the readies!

        • 3d1k,

          Good point about the Chardonnay.

          Only hipster revivalists are keeping the Chards flame burning.

          Middle class socialists are more likely to be grooving to unusual varietals from Spain and Italy.

          Along with micro-brews using artisan hops.

          Burp !

          Having said all that, the nut brown Hopper Whittman from Aldi goes down well in the average suburban survivalist car port.

          • Good point Pfh

            Good chardonnay – what is it?

            When all is said and done you just ripen up any old chardonnay grapes to the right sugar level (a bit of chaptalisation if you really need it in the old world) and lob in the oak chips to taste.

            I recall well in the late 1980s (the height of the chardonnay frenzy) some bozo coming out from Burgundy to tell us all how the Australians had got it all wrong, and someone slipped an el cheapo 5.99 Lindemans into his tasting. The upshot was he waxed lyrical for half an hour about a wine quite a few of us knew had been cooked up in massive vats in Mildura with the wood flavour added courtesy of oak chips poured into the vat courtesy of large uncouth labouring types wearing blue singlets, and listening to Barnsey while they did it. A couple of years later I actually spent a season doing the French vineyard circuit and understood why they wanked on long and hard about culture and history – because at a straight out grape quality, and purity of production process level it was on a day to day basis largely bullshido.

            Put me down with an Italian pinot grigio or a good Sancerre if I want something European and white.

            And despite having a vino collection that would impress more than a few I am a big fan of the Saint Etienne from Aldi too. Matter of fact I’ve got one now.

          • Well gunna – you would have seen my response to phf / but ‘poof’ the
            Mb editorial has taken control – sads phf because it was complimentary!!’

      • Oh give it a rest Minebot. Media Watch is tearing this nonsense to shreds tonight. The idea that two media organisations would sit on these spying revelations for months just to embarrass Abbott is so utterly ludicrous I’m surprised even Bolt is running with it.

        • News organisations? Perhaps. On some fronts. But when it comes to the political, propaganda machines is a more apt description.

          Challenge for you Lorax – where was the ‘national interest’ intoned by Scott?

          The UK recently requested the press observe a protocol in regard to the Snowden leaks and it was largely observed. International relations and intelligence practices are not the playthings of amateur media ideologues

          You watch Wei Wei too much ABC.

          • You guys have really lost the plot this time. Do you think if the Oz had got hold of this information during the election campaign they would have sat on it for a nanosecond?

            Sometimes news happens at inconvenient times for governments. As your hero would say “shit happens”. Its how you manage the situation that counts, and Abbott has handled it badly.

            But all we get from the loon pond is this ABC/Guardian/Fairfax conspiracy theory nonsense. You’re making complete fools of yourselves.

          • Besides, why is all this vitriol being directed at the ABC. Its the Guardian who has the leaked information from Snowden. Are you seriously suggesting that if the Guardian published this info, the ABC, Fairfax and for that matter News Corp should keep it quiet?

            Is Ch 9, Ch 7, Ch 10 and SBS in on the game as well?

  5. I suspect we have entered an era where one and two term governments are the norm rather than the exceptions. Because people are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with the way we are governed – such as those bipartisan high migration policies.

    • Yep we are stuck in this absurd two party boat so the only alternative is to keep rushing from side to side rocking it until it sinks.