From the Herald Sun, the Bank of Melbourne CEO hoists a petard:
FIRST home buyers will return to the Victorian property market early next year as confidence grows, providing a further boost to property prices, Bank of Melbourne chief Scott Tanner says.
…But he cautions the Reserve Bank is likely to start lifting the official interest rate towards the end of next year.
…First home buyers accounted for only 17.2 per cent of all new loans approved in Victoria in August – the lowest level in almost two years – according to Australian Bureau of Statistics figures.
…”We are way, way away from a bubble,” he said.
“There is always a risk of a property bubble but it is premature to be talking about it at the moment.”
Hmmm, well, even on his own logic one wonders if it isn’t better to be concerned about a bubble before it happens rather than after.
As well, the likelihood of FHBs storming back into Melbourne is very low. It’s not because they might not like to. But the evidence from NSW and QLD, which have led VIC on the shift of FHB incentives from existing to new dwellings, is not at all encouraging.
Check out the recent record of FHBs in ABS housing finance data, and compare NSW (blue) and QLD (green) with VIC (red):
There is only one way that Victorian FHBs are going to go in the months ahead and it’s not up!
