China’s magic number is 7.2%

Advertisement
images

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has finally said what we’ve all known for a long time. From Reuters:

“We want to stabilize economic growth because we need to guarantee employment essentially,” Li was quoted by the Workers’ Daily as saying on Monday. His remarks were made at a union meeting two weeks ago but were only published in full this week, just days before a pivotal Communist Party plenum to set policy opens.

Yet even as authorities keep an eye on growth, Li sounded a warning on easy credit supply, which he said had topped 100 trillion yuan ($16.4 trillion) in the world’s second-biggest economy.

“Our outstanding M2 money supply has at the end of March exceeded 100 trillion yuan, and that is already twice the size of our gross domestic product (GDP),” Li was quoting as saying.

“In other words, there is already a lot of money in the ‘pool’; to print more money may lead to inflation.”

…Li reiterated that a 7.5 percent growth target for 2013 remains intact, but noted that weak exports were a risk.

…For every percentage point that China generates in economic growth, it creates 1.3 million to 1.5 million jobs, Li said.

“We are not seeking high-speed growth, and definitely not seeking only GDP growth. But a reasonable speed in growth is needed, and so we have ensured a reasonable range in economic expansion,” he said.

Pretty clear that.

Advertisement
About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
Advertisement