Advertisement
From Twitter:
I’m surprised by the capex report. Even the RBA and Treasury have been swinging firmly my way in recent months on their industry liaison with mining. The BREE report showed the cliff clearly. Market action illustrates a cliff. My best explanation for capex holding up OK is that the data is wrong. It’s not an excuse I ever use but the ABS capex survey consistently over-estimated the boom on the way up it’s fair to suggest it is doing to same on the way down.
The chance of a Q1 rate rise remains tiny but markets have a reason to at least discount it now. Hard to see the dollar falling for the time being unless my cynicism about the data is widespread. We shall see what wider interpretations bring.
About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
Advertisement