Weekly RP Data Australian house price update

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ScreenHunter_03 Apr. 02 11.00

By Leith van Onselen

In the week ended 17 October 2013, the RP Data-Rismark 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, recorded a 0.39% rise. It was the eighth consecutive increase in values (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_41 Oct. 17 14.12

Values rose in three of the major capitals and fell in two (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_42 Oct. 17 14.13

Values are up 0.87% so far in October, with all major capitals except Adelaide recording rises (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_43 Oct. 17 14.14
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Since the end of last year, home values have risen by 7.70% at the 5-city level, with all markets experiencing gains (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_44 Oct. 17 14.16

Over the past 12 months, values have risen by 7.07% at the 5-city level, again with all major markets experiencing increases (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_45 Oct. 17 14.17

The next chart plots the daily movements on a 14-day moving average, in order to smooth volatility. As you can see, the uptrend continues, driven primarily by strong gains in Sydney and Melbourne (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_46 Oct. 17 14.18
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Values are up only 1.6% since the 2010 peak at the 5-city level, driven entirely by strong gains in Sydney, with all of the other major markets still in negative territory (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_47 Oct. 17 14.19

However, major capital home values have now gained 9.7% since bottoming nationally in May 2012, with all capitals rebounding from their respective troughs (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_48 Oct. 17 14.20

Note: readers are advised not to read too much into short-term movements in the RP Data daily index. This index is volatile and not seasonally adjusted, hence it can give false readings when interpreted over a short timeframe. There is also evidence suggesting the RP Data daily index is a lagging indicator for the quarterly ABS house price series (see here). Caveat emptor.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.