Weekly RP Data Australian house price update

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ScreenHunter_19 Mar. 13 13.12

By Leith van Onselen

In the week ended 10 October 2013, the RP Data-Rismark 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, recorded a 0.26% rise. It was the seventh consecutive increase in values (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_01 Oct. 11 08.16
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Values rose in all major capitals, except Melbourne (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_02 Oct. 11 08.17

Values are up 0.48% so far in October, again with all major capitals except Melbourne recording rises (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_03 Oct. 11 08.18

Since the end of last year, home values have risen by 7.28% at the 5-city level, with all markets experiencing gains (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_04 Oct. 11 08.20
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Over the past 12 months, values have risen by 6.29% at the 5-city level, again with all major markets experiencing increases (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_05 Oct. 11 08.21

The next chart plots the daily movements on a 14-day moving average, in order to smooth volatility. As you can see, the uptrend continues, driven primarily by strong gains in Sydney and Melbourne (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_06 Oct. 11 08.22

Values are up only 1.2% since the 2010 peak at the 5-city level, driven entirely by strong gains in Sydney, with all of the other major markets still in negative territory (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_07 Oct. 11 08.23
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However, major capital home values have now gained 9.3% since bottoming nationally in May 2012, with all capitals rebounding from their respective troughs (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_08 Oct. 11 08.25

Note: readers are advised not to read too much into short-term movements in the RP Data daily index. This index is volatile and not seasonally adjusted, hence it can give false readings when interpreted over a short timeframe. There is also evidence suggesting the RP Data daily index is a lagging indicator for the quarterly ABS house price series (see here). Caveat emptor.

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unconventionaleconomist@hotmail.com

www.twitter.com/Leithvo

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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