Web traffic forecasts mortgage surge

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From the AFR:

Australia’s biggest home loan comparison website,Finder.com, is predicting the number of home loans financed in September will be up 70 per cent on January figures based on internet traffic analysis.

Finder.com expects the official number of home loans financed in August will hit 59,000, while September figures will show more than 61,000 up from 38,800 in January.

This is useful in terms of trend but not magnitude. The 61k figure may be huge and it may not. It equals 2006 highs in ABS Mortgage Finance but it does not include investors in its numbers, which currently account for 40% of loans, according to secondary sources.

We can probably say it reflects a rising tide of interest but not much more. The RPData forward mortgage indicator is showing year on year gains but nothing like a blowoff:

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Picture 2

This looks like a clever marketing stunt by Finder more than anything else.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.