Last night saw the release of the ISM which is still powering:
Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in September for the fourth consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 52nd consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
“The PMI™ registered 56.2 percent, an increase of 0.5 percentage point from August’s reading of 55.7 percent. September’s PMI™ reading is the highest of the year, leading to an average PMI™ reading of 55.8 percent for the third quarter. The New Orders Index decreased in September by 2.7 percentage points to 60.5 percent, and the Production Index increased by 0.2 percentage point to 62.6 percent. The Employment Index registered 55.4 percent, an increase of 2.1 percentage points compared to August’s reading of 53.3 percent, which is the highest reading for the year. Comments from the panel are generally positive and optimistic about increasing demand and improving business conditions.”
Less glowing news came in the form of a big fall in vehicle sales. From Calculated Risk:
Based on an estimate from WardsAuto, light vehicle sales were at a 15.24 million SAAR in September. That is up 2.4% from September 2012, and down 4.9% from the sales rate last month. Some of the decline in September (and strong August) was related to the timing of the Labor Day holiday.This was below the consensus forecast of 15.8 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate).This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for September (red, light vehicle sales of 15.24 million SAAR from WardsAuto).
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And finally, Core Logic house prices are slowing but still strong year on year:
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased 12.4 percent on a year-over-year basis in August 2013 compared to August 2012. This change represents the 18th consecutive monthly year-over-year increase in home prices nationally. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 0.9 percent in August 2013 compared to July 2013. Excluding distressed sales, home prices increased on a year-over-year basis by 11.2 percent in August 2013 compared to August 2012. On a month-over-month basis, excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 1 percent in August 2013 compared to July 2013. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that September 2013 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to rise by 12.7 percent on a year-over-year basis from September 2012 and rise by 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis from August 2013. Excluding distressed sales, September 2013 home prices are poised to rise 12.2 percent year over year from September 2012 and by 0.7 percent month over month from August 2013.
On the whole good data which is why bonds sold off 1% (in yields) and stocks were supported despite the mess in Washington.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
