This is the first time this question has been included in the RP Data – Nine Rewards survey. The results show 60% of survey respondents believe the Australian housing market may be vulnerable to a significant correction in values. The survey didn’t probe further about what level of value decline would be considered ‘significant’, however, it is clear that there is a level of unease about the future of Australian dwelling values.
Respondents based in the Australian Capital Territory, Perth and Sydney showed the most significant level of pessimism when it came to their belief that dwelling values are vulnerable to a significant correction. 70% of respondents in the ACT thought the local housing values were vulnerable to a significant fall, as did 68% of Perth respondents and 65% of Sydney respondents. Both Sydney and Perth have seen a greater than average run up in dwelling values over the most recent growth cycle which may be contributing to the perceived threat of a downturn in home values.
Conversely, respondents in Tasmania, where the housing market has been the weakest of any state or territory, are much less pessimistic. Only 36% of respondents thought the housing market was vulnerable to a significant correction in dwelling values. The proportion of pessimistic responses was below 60% for respondents based in the Northern Territory, regional NSW, Adelaide, Brisbane and regional Victoria.
The configuration of cities rather suggest some local factors are playing a role with Perth and the ACT both in the firing line from the mining bust and austerity. But the results are still remarkably high across the board. I submit to you that this is the primary reason that Australian households continue their new found savings habits. They do not actually believe in bricks and mortar like they used to. The present madness in Sydney will not improve that one bit.
The survey also showed a fall in general housing sentiment for the month plus an increase in those expecting prices to rise.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
