Weekly RP Data Australian house price update

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ScreenHunter_19 Mar. 13 13.12

By Leith van Onselen

In the week ended 26 September 2013, the RP Data-Rismark 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, recorded a 0.22% rise, which was the fifth consecutive weekly increase (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_19 Sep. 27 06.59

Values rose in three major capitals and fell in two (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_20 Sep. 27 07.02

Values are up 1.37% so far in September, with all major capitals except Perth recording rises (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_21 Sep. 27 07.04
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Since the end of last year, home values have risen by 6.50% at the 5-city level, with all markets experiencing gains (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_22 Sep. 27 07.05

Over the past 12 months, values have risen by 5.56% at the 5-city level, with all major markets except Adelaide, experiencing increases (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_23 Sep. 27 07.06

The next chart plots the daily movements on a 14-day moving average, in order to smooth volatility. As you can see, the uptrend continues, driven primarily by strong gains in Sydney and Melbourne (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_24 Sep. 27 07.08
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Values are now up 0.4% since their 2010 peak at the 5-city level, but with all major capitals except Sydney remaining in negative territory (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_25 Sep. 27 07.09

Major capital home values have now gained 8.5% since bottoming nationally in May 2012, with all capitals rebounding from their respective troughs (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_26 Sep. 27 07.10

Note: readers are advised not to read too much into short-term movements in the RP Data daily index. This index is volatile and not seasonally adjusted, hence it can give false readings when interpreted over a shorter-term timeframe. There is also evidence suggesting the RP Data daily index is a lagging indicator for the quarterly ABS house price series (see here). Caveat emptor.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.