Weekly RP Data Australian house price update

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ScreenHunter_19 Mar. 13 13.12

By Leith van Onselen

In the week ended 12 September 2013, the RP Data-Rismark 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, recorded a 0.27% rise, which was the third consecutive weekly increase (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_11 Sep. 13 07.20
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Values rose in all major capitals except Perth (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_12 Sep. 13 07.22

Values are up 0.62% so far in August, with all major capitals except Perth recording rises (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_13 Sep. 13 07.23

Since the end of last year, home values have risen by 5.71% at the 5-city level, with all markets experiencing gains (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_14 Sep. 13 07.25
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Over the past 12 months, values have risen by 5.77% at the 5-city level, again with all major markets experiencing increases (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_15 Sep. 13 07.26

The next chart plots the daily movements on a 14-day moving average, in order to smooth volatility. As you can see, the uptrend continues, driven primarily by strong gains in Sydney and Perth, and more recently in Melbourne (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_16 Sep. 13 07.27

Values are down only 0.3% since peak at the 5-city level, with all major capitals except Sydney in negative territory (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_17 Sep. 13 07.29
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However, major capital home values have now gained 7.7% since bottoming nationally in May 2012, with all capitals rebounding from their respective troughs (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_18 Sep. 13 07.30

Note: readers are advised not to read too much into short-term movements in the RP Data daily index. This index is volatile and not seasonally adjusted, hence it can give false readings when interpreted over a shorter-term timeframe. There is also evidence suggesting the RP Data daily index is a lagging indicator for the quarterly ABS house price series (see here). Caveat emptor.

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unconventionaleconomist@hotmail.com

www.twitter.com/Leithvo

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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