QLD housing activity still rising off the canvas

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By Leith van Onselen

The Queensland Government has released data on housing transfers and mortgage lodgements for the month of August.

According to the Government, the number of housing transfers fell by 7.1% in August, whereas the number of mortgage lodgements fell by 9.4% over the month (see next chart).

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However, the data is not seasonally adjusted and is inherently volatile. Therefore, a better way to compare it is on a year-on-year basis, which removes problems associated with seasonality. On an annual basis, transfers rose by 12.2% in August, whereas mortgage transfers rose by 12.9% (see next chart).

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You can see from the next chart that Queensland transfers and mortgage lodgements have been in an up-trend since late-2011. They also remain depressed overall, still tracking 21% (transfers) and 24% (mortgages) respectively below the 13-year average in the year to August 2013 and are at similar levels to the year 2000.

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Accordingly, it appears that the housing recovery underway in Queensland remains tepid.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.