The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released Balance of Payments data for the June quarter, which revealed a worsening of the trade deficit and suggested that net exports would detract 0.04% from tomorrow’s quarterly GDP print (my emphasis):
Latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures show that in seasonally adjusted, current price terms, the current account deficit increased $610m (7 per cent) to $9,350m in the June quarter 2013. Exports of goods and services rose $1,616m (2 per cent) and imports of goods and services rose $1,756m (2 per cent). The primary income deficit rose $479m (6 per cent).
In seasonally adjusted, chain volume terms, the net goods and services surplus fell $154m (2 per cent) to $7,152m in the June quarter 2013. This is expected to detract 0.04 percentage points from growth in the June quarter 2013 volume measure of Gross Domestic Product.
Australia’s net International Investment Position (IIP) liability position was $816.9b at 30 June 2013, a decrease of $31.8b on 31 March 2013 liability position of $848.7b. Australia’s net foreign debt liability increased $23.1b to a liability position of $762.2b. Australia’s net foreign equity liability decreased $54.9b to a liability position of $54.8b.
Given that most indicators have pointed to flat growth in domestic demand, a negative constribution from net exports would suggest there is a real risk that tomorrow’s GDP print could show flat or possibly even negative growth over the quarter.
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
