Long-term immigration continues to boom

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By Leith van Onselen

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) yesterday released visitor arrivals and departures data for the month of July, which again revealed surging net temporary migration into Australia, but falling net permanent migration.

In the year to July 2013, there were 677,980 permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia (a new record), partly offset by 370,890 permanent and long-term departures from Australia (see next chart).

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There were 307,090 net permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia in the year to July 2013, representing a 54% increase from the January 2011 trough and more than double the long-run average (see next chart).

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Yet, while overall net long-term arrivals are booming, it is a different story for permanent migration. In the year to July 2013, permanent arrivals fell by 4% to 152,440, whereas permanent departures rose 5% to their highest ever level of 92,250 (see next chart).

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In fact, net permanent arrivals into Australia fell for the eleventh consecutive month and are now tracking 9% below the long-run average (see next chart).

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A superficial look at the the ABS data suggests that much of the recent immigration into Australia has been temporary in nature. However, according to the Department of Immigration, around 30% of workers on temporary 457 visas end up becoming permanent residents, suggesting that actual permanent immigration remains at relatively high levels.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.