Weekly RP Data house price update

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ScreenHunter_19 Mar. 13 13.12

By Leith van Onselen

In the week ended 29 August 2013, the RP Data-Rismark 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, recorded a 0.06% rise, which followed last week’s 0.17% fall (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_82 Aug. 29 16.51

Results were mixed, however, with three of the capitals experiencing falling values and two increases (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_83 Aug. 29 16.52

Values are up 0.41% so far in August, with all major capitals except Perth recording rises (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_84 Aug. 29 16.53
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Since the end of last year, home values have risen by 4.97% at the 5-city level, with all markets except Adelaide experiencing gains (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_85 Aug. 29 16.54

Over the past 12 months, values have risen by 5.29% at the 5-city level, again with all major markets experiencing increases (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_86 Aug. 29 16.55

The next chart plots the daily movements on a 14-day moving average, in order to smooth volatility. As you can see, the uptrend continues, driven primarily by strong gains in Perth and Sydney, and more recently in Melbourne (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_87 Aug. 29 16.57
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Values are down 1.0% since peak at the 5-city level, with all major capitals except Sydney in negative territory (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_88 Aug. 29 16.58

However, major capital home values have now gained 6.9% since bottoming nationally in May 2012, with all capitals rebounding from their respective troughs (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_89 Aug. 29 16.59

Note: readers are advised not to read too much into short-term movements in the RP Data daily index. This index is volatile and not seasonally adjusted, hence it can give false readings when interpreted over a shorter-term timeframe. There is also evidence suggesting the RP Data daily index is a lagging indicator for the quarterly ABS house price series (see here). Caveat emptor.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.