The stronger Australian dollar and a slightly weaker oil price have relieved some of the recent upwards momentum in oil prices. Oil had a stronger night on Friday but is off its recent highs:
The IEA is forecasting weaker short term prices:
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that the Brent crude oil spot price, which averaged $108 per barrel over the first half of 2013, will average $104 per barrel over the second half of 2013, and $100 per barrel in 2014. …EIA expects the WTI discount to widen to $6 per barrel by the end of 2013 as crude oil production in Alberta, Canada, recovers following the heavy June flooding and as midcontinent production continues to grow….EIA expects the regular gasoline retail price to average $3.59 per gallon in the third quarter of 2013, and the annual average price to decline from an average of $3.63 per gallon in 2012 to $3.52 per gallon in 2013 and to $3.37 per gallon in 2014.U.S. crude oil production increased to an average of 7.5 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in July 2013, the highest monthly level of production since 1991.
Local prices for last week are yet to update but we can expect to continue the current range between $154 and $160:
For the future, any offset in weaker oil seems likely to be countered by the dollar, pushing us into a new price range:
