Petrol prices have fallen back from recent record highs. Here is the updated charts with last week’s average price included:
As you can see, however, the global oil price is again bumping up against the top of its recent range and with the Syrian war threatening to spill into a global proxy conflict we can expect disturbances across the Arab “main street”. Not to mention the uncertainty in Egypt and Libya. There is also the global recovery in growth, such as it is. Oil prices could very easily spike under these conditions.
The ongoing sell-off in emerging markets is also more likely to pull the Aussie down than see it rise in the near term.
Would it matter? To consumption, yes. Here is a chart from CBA on the monthly spend of households on petrol:
But to the overall economy, this is just the price households must pay to support improved competitiveness and tradeables investment.
