NAB monthly online sales index is beginning to look a little worse for wear, though most of the weakness appears to be seasonal:
In the twelve months to June 2013, Australian online retail spending totaled $13.9 billion. This spending is equivalent to 6.2% of the traditional bricks & mortar retail sector (excluding cafés, restaurants and takeaway food for a like-to-like comparison) in the year to May 2013.
The NAB Online Retail Sales Index eased back slightly in June – back to 223 points (from 226 points in May).
The growth rate for online retail sales slowed for the second straight month in June – with the year-on-year rate down to +14% (compared with +17% yoy in May). This is the second weakest growth rate in the history of the index, stronger only than the +12% yoy growth in March 2013.
Traditional bricks & mortar retail grew by +2.8% year-on-year in May 2013 (on a nonseasonally adjusted basis), marginally stronger than the level in April, +2.4% yoy. However, when seasonal factors are included, the growth trend for traditional retail eased back to +2.4% yoy (from +2.6% yoy in May).
The slowing rate of growth in June may be related to two key factors. First, June 2013 had only four Fridays – typically a peak day for online sales – compared with five Fridays in June 2012. Second, June 2012 featured several major product launches in the Homewares and Appliances space (particularly in personal computing and mobile phones) – which tend to inflate sales – while June 2013 lacked similar releases, contributing to more subdued growth.
It’s still a clear down trend that is not being matched by a pick up in bricks and mortar…
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
