ANZ Research has today released a short note summarising today’s Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) information paper showing that online sales are only a minor player in the retail space, capturing around 2% of total retail sales with international sales worth another 2%:
In response to concerns about the measurement of retail sales in an environment of fast-growing internet sales the ABS today released an information paper on the measurement of online sales. Market sources suggest that online sales have increased at a rapid rate over the past decade with growth accelerating with the appreciation of the Australian dollar. This growth and the ongoing lack of official data on internet sales has prompted concerns about underreporting of total sales. The ABS is attempting to address these concerns and improve measurement of both domestic online sales and online purchases from overseas.
The ABS reports that 1.8% of the May 2013 estimate of domestic retail sales was derived from online retail sales. The ABS estimates that around 40% of these sales came from pure-play online retailers (that is, those that only have an online presence) and 60% from multi-channel retailers (those that also sell via a store). Applying this estimate to the whole of 2011-12 would suggest that annual turnover of domestic online retailers was AUD4.6bn over that period.
This estimate is significantly lower than the figures from the Productivity Commission’s late-2011 report that suggested that online sales represented around 4% of domestic retail sales. The ABS does note, however, that this discrepancy is likely due to the limited scope of the Retail Business Survey, which excludes non-employing businesses, non-resident businesses, and businesses which are largely either wholesalers or manufacturers, but which also sell to households. The estimate is also significantly lower than the NAB’s latest estimate of online sales which suggests that around 6% of retail spending (ex cafes, restaurants, and take-away food) is with online retailers. The Productivity Commission estimated that overseas sales were worth around another 2% of retail sales…
There was no surprise in the ABS findings on popular online purchases. As expected, the sectors most exposed to online retailing are those which sell books, CDs & DVDs, clothing and electronic goods…
The ABS expects to include these sales for the first time in the International Trade report for August this year, and the Q3 Balance of Payments. They will also be included in the National Accounts figures from Q3 onwards.
The ABS is continuing to investigate further ways to fully capture online sales. It anticipates further enhancements in measurement and coverage of online sales, and is also looking into sales of other services delivered online, such as e-books, films, music, apps, online newspaper and magazine subscriptions and gambling services.
