Weekly RP Data house price update

ScreenHunter_07 Mar. 20 20.55

By Leith van Onselen

In the week ended 25 July 2013, the RP Data-Rismark 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, recorded a 0.36% increase. It was the seventh consecutive weekly rise in values (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_20 Jul. 25 17.30

Gains were recorded in all major capitals, except Adelaide and Brisbane (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_21 Jul. 25 17.31

Values are up 1.30% so far in July, with all major capitals, except Adelaide, recording rises (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_22 Jul. 25 17.32

Since the end of last year, home values have risen by 4.32% at the 5-city level, with all markets except Adelaide experiencing gains (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_23 Jul. 25 17.33

Over the past 12 months, values have risen by 4.51% at the 5-city level, with all major markets experiencing increases (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_24 Jul. 25 17.35

The next chart plots the daily movements on a 14-day moving average, in order to smooth volatility. As you can see, the uptrend continues, driven primarily by strong gains in Perth and Sydney (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_25 Jul. 25 17.36

Values are down 1.6% since peak at the 5-city level, with all major capitals except Sydney in negative territory (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_26 Jul. 25 17.37

However, major capital home values have now gained 6.3% since bottoming in May 2012, with all capitals rebounding (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_27 Jul. 25 17.38

Note: readers are advised not to read too much into short-term movements in the RP Data daily index. This index is incredibly volatile and not seasonally adjusted, hence it can give false readings when interpreted over a shorter-term timeframe. There is also evidence suggesting the RP Data daily index is a lagging indicator for the quarterly ABS house price series (see here). Caveat emptor.

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  1. A further blow to Australian productivity and competitiveness and an indictment on those calling for further rate cuts.

  2. Not suprising at all. The RBA has engineered this recovery in property prices to kick start construction which is necessary to avert recession post mining investment peak. Mildly rising house prices will continue in the medium term with further interest rates still to come.