Weekly RP Data house price update

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ScreenHunter_07 Mar. 20 20.55

By Leith van Onselen

In the week ended 4 July 2013, the RP Data-Rismark 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, recorded a large 0.62% increase. It was the fourth consecutive weekly rise in values (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_04 Jul. 05 08.02
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Results were mixed, with three major capitals recording rises and two falls (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_05 Jul. 05 08.03

Values are up 0.33% so far in July, again with three major capitals recording rises and two falls (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_06 Jul. 05 08.05

Since the end of last year, home values have risen by 3.32% at the 5-city level, with all markets experiencing gains (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_07 Jul. 05 08.06
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Over the past 12 months, values have risen by 4.17% at the 5-city level, with all major markets experiencing increases (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_08 Jul. 05 08.07

The next chart plots the daily movements on a 14-day moving average, in order to smooth volatility. As you can see, the uptrend has resumied across most markets, although Melbourne and Brisbane have stalled (see next chart).

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ScreenHunter_09 Jul. 05 08.09

Values are down 2.6% since peak at the 5-city level, with all major capitals except Sydney in negative territory (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_10 Jul. 05 08.10
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However, major capital home values have now gained 5.2% since bottoming in May 2012, with all capitals rebounding (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_11 Jul. 05 08.11

Note: readers are advised not to read too much into short-term movements in the RP Data daily index. This index is incredibly volatile and not seasonally adjusted, hence it can give false readings when interpreted over a shorter-term timeframe. There is also evidence suggesting the RP Data daily index is a lagging indicator for the quarterly ABS house price series (see here). Caveat emptor.

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unconventionaleconomist@hotmail.com

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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