ANZ is out with its quarterly Property Industry Confidence Index and the September quarter is seeing some falls from robust levels, focused in mining states, with greater resilience in eastern states. Overall the index is still strong.
Property industry confidence eased slightly but remained buoyant in the September quarter. Low interest rates appear to be gaining traction with both dwelling investment and house prices expected to rise in the year ahead. This is a very positive sign for the broader economy as property will be critical in driving the transition from mining investment towards more interest rate sensitive sectors.
Surveyed national economic growth expectations for the year ahead remained remarkably upbeat in the September quarter, despite increasing concern over the non-mining sector’s ability to offset the looming decline in mining investment. The net balance of survey respondents still expect Australian economic growth to accelerate underpinned by low interest rates and improved debt finance availability.
The September quarter survey polled more than 3,150 property industry professionals – by far the most comprehensive survey of Australian property industry views – and revealed positive expectations for house price growth, debt finance availability and property construction. This result reflects an increasingly positive outlook for the housing market; with higher house prices, increased home sales, accelerating housing finance and a positive outlook for dwelling construction.
Property industry confidence remained positive in all states and territories in the September quarter except Tasmania and the ACT. While the states with the greatest exposure to the mining industry (Western Australia and the Northern Territory) continued to report the highest readings, property industry confidence converged somewhat across the states and territories. Notably, NSW property industry confidence remained buoyant in the September quarter (at 130) to be second only to Western Australia (at 139).
PCA ANZ Property Confidence Survey September 2013.pdf by James Woods
