Temp’ migration to boom on Chinese students?

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By Leith van Onselen

HSBC has today issued a news release predicting that the number of Chinese students studying in Australia is set to boom over the next 5-10 years:

The number of Chinese studying abroad will increase seven times in the next 5-10 years with Australia the most popular destination in Asia and fourth most popular globally, according to a recent HSBC survey.

The insights are drawn from a survey¹ conducted by HSBC in China with responses from 1,000 mainland Chinese on education and work intentions.

Today only 10% of Chinese respondents are studying abroad but this is expected to increase to 68% in the next 5-10 years. Amongst respondents with overseas education intentions, 73% plan to send their children overseas to study while 20% plan to study abroad and move with their children. They voted Australia as the top country in Asia to study and fourth globally, behind the US, UK and Canada.

Graham Heunis, Head of Retail Banking and Wealth Management for HSBC Bank Australia, said: “The results show that Australia is front of mind for Chinese students. This is good news for the Australian education sector which suffered a 12% drop in international enrolments2 between 2010 and 2012.”

The increase in international students is also expected to improve Australia’s links with the Asian region.

Heunis concluded: “International students will be critical in developing cultural ties within our region as they often stay in Australia long term, working in Australian companies and as a result increasing Australian businesses’ Asia-relevant capabilities.”

“HSBC is also seeing increased interest among Chinese parents with children studying in Australia setting up banking facilities to invest or purchase property here.

The lift in education exports to places like China will be important in helping Australia rebalance growth away from the mining sector, as well as providing a much needed boost to cities like Melbourne, which have recently experienced a contraction in manufacturing activity.

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That said, the key driver of Australia’s booming population growth since the mid-2000s has been long-term temporary immigration, many of whom include foreign students (see next chart).

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The expected increase in Chinese students studying abroad suggests that long-term migration into Australia will increase further, some of whom will likely go on to become permanent residents, thus increasing permanent population growth as well.

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Increased immigration will, therefore, put increasing strains on housing and infrastructure, requiring pro-active planning by Australia’s governments to ensure that there is an adequate supply of land for housing, and that additional infrastructure is both provided and funded.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.