Stock on market rising again

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ScreenHunter_03 Jan. 30 13.18

By Leith van Onselen

SQM Research has released stock on market data for the month of May, which registered a large 4.8% increase in for sale listings over the month nationally and a 1.3% increase over the year (see next table).

ScreenHunter_01 Jun. 10 20.29

While the market is two speed – with listings in Sydney, Perth and Darwin remaining relatively tight – the overall lift in the number of listings nationally suggests that the housing market recovery remains tepid. From the SQM Media release:

Overall, if the market was indeed stronger, stock levels would be decreasing despite of seasonality. However, we see that this is not the case as yet. It is the opinion of SQM Research that the current market is still in the very early stages of recovery.

Louis Christopher, managing director of SQM Research says, “Except for Sydney, Perth and Darwin, residential property listings across the country still remain elevated and stubbornly high. Melbourne is a prime example of this.

“After a period earlier this year where it appeared that stock was being absorbed, we now have a situation where there is now even more stock on the market than what we had this time last year. Auction clearance rates may well be higher in that city but vendors seem to be using this period to offload their properties.

“As stated previously, what we have ahead of us is only a modest to moderate housing recovery. While I laugh at the notion that house prices are falling as stated by only one of my competitors, it is clear that in some metropolitan locations, the market has continued to fall despite the interest rate cuts. As for the strongest cities out there – they are by far Sydney, Perth and Darwin, though I note from our recent survey earlier this week that we now expect Perth to slow down later this year.”

About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.