From Moody’s Investor Service:
Sydney, June 03, 2013 — Moody’s Investors Service says that Australian prime mortgage arrears worsened in March versus the previous month.
As published in Moody’s just-released Global Structured Finance Collateral Performance Review, Moody’s says arrears in excess of 30 days in the Australian prime residential mortgage market were 1.66% in March, up from 1.60% in February and up from 1.59% the same period one year earlier.
Thirty-day-plus arrears in the Australian non-conforming market were marginally higher at 7.85% compared with 8.45% in February but down from 8.70% in February 2012.
Australian Prime 60-day-plus arrears, at 0.90%, compare favourably to some of the other countries covered in the Global Collateral Performance Report. The Netherlands (0.83%) and Japan (0.28%) are the only countries reporting a lower 60-plus arrears rate.
“Looking ahead, we expect the performance trends witnessed in 2012 to continue over 2013 with stable delinquencies, underpinned by expected GDP growth of 2.0% to 3.0%, a continuation of the low interest rate environment, and a steady unemployment rate of 5.0% to 6.0%” says Jennifer Wu, a Moody’s Vice President and Senior Credit Officer.
There is a big difference between 5% and 6% unemployment and growth at 2% versus 3%.
