Roy Morgan Research (RMR) has today released some interesting surveys that help to explain some of the underlying factors behind Ford Australia’s announced closure of its assembly operations in 2016, as well as shedding a light on what Ford’s closure might mean for Australia’s other two local manufacturers – Holden and Toyota.
According to RMR, the number of people intending to purchase a Ford in the next four years (excluding fleet, government or rental buyers) declined by 15% since 2008, from 190,000 to 164,000. Moreover, the proportion of those people intending to buy a locally made Ford Falcon series or Territory also fell, from 64.7% in 2008 to 54.9% (see next chart).
In positive news for Holden and Toyota, of the 90,000 people intending to buy a Falcon series car over the next four years (excluding fleet, government or rental buyers), Holden is the most popular second choice, with 29% consideration, whereas Toyota comes in second, with 13% of Falcon buyers ranking it as the most popular second choice (see next chart).
However, it’s the other way around among Ford Territory buyers, with 27.5% considering a Toyota as an alternative, followed by 14.2% considering Holden (see next chart).
According to RMR’s Industry Communications Director, Norman Morris:
“With Ford pulling out of local manufacturing in 2016, Holden and Toyota are positioned to be the main beneficiaries should potential buyers of Falcon and Territory go with their second or third choices.
“While car brands manufacturing in Australia have traditionally held a large proportion of the market, competition has increased dramatically over the last decade. Not only are more Australians moving towards SUV-style vehicles, they’ve also got a wider choice of brands than ever before.
“Australia’s high dollar over the last 12 months and apparent resilience to the tight international economic situation has also opened the way for less expensive, and generally better optioned, imported vehicles from countries such as Thailand.
“Over the last few years, Australians are buying more new cars than ever, with around 49 new vehicles sold per thousand people in 2012*. This makes Australia one of the world’s highest-volume markets per capita – with imported vehicles dominating the top seller lists month after month in recent times.
“With sales up 4.5% YTD, 2013 could be another record year in the making, although the recent decline in the Aussie dollar could impact this result.”
