Vendors lifted asking prices in April

From SQM Research comes its new Vendor asking price index for April.

Vendors lifted their asking prices this month by 0.5% for houses and 0.9% for units. Year on year, asking prices for houses are up by 1.9% and units up by 2.6%. This follows on from the 1.3% increase in the March Quarter. Sydney, Perth and to a lesser extent Brisbane and Hobart contributed to the rise in prices over the month of April. Canberra and Melbourne made negative contributions.

It should be noted that next Tuesday the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release their house prices for the March quarter.

Our forecast is that House prices will RISE on the ABS measurement of between 1.0% to 1.7% for the March 2013 Quarter.

The rise will be driven by strong results out of Sydney and Darwin. While Canberra, Brisbane, Adelaide and Melbourne will likely make negative contributions to the result.

Let’s run through the cities –

Canberra: Asking prices down 0.5% for houses and down 1.1% for units in April

And that was just for the month. If you look at the chart, it is clear that there has been a straight out downward trend in the market since mid last year and arguably since 2011. Indeed, peak-to-trough asking prices for houses are now down 18.9% while units are down 7.5%. Units are probably holding up better merely because property developers are not publicly reducing their prices on their advertised product.

This makes for a complete shambles of the RP Data daily unrevised index which misrepresented the market by claiming house prices rose by 3.8% for the March Quarter. What rubbish. It is clear that federal budget cuts are hurting the local housing market. Our strong tip is that the ABS will report falling prices for Canberra when they release the March quarter data on May 7.

Sydney: Asking prices up 1.4% for houses and up 0.8% for units in April

Vendors are becoming increasingly confident in Sydney with the market being in a upward trend since September 2012. Asking prices for 3 bedroom houses have just cracked $800,000, while two bedroom apartments are touching $520,000. We remain confident on the Sydney market for the remainder of this year and into the next. Have a read of our Sydney Housing Boom and Bust Report for more on what we are forecasting for the Sydney market.

Darwin: Asking prices down 0.8% for houses and up 2.3% for units in April

Just a slight pull back on houses after an accelerated period of rapid house price rises since 2012, whereby prices rose by $100,000. One senses that this cannot continue for much longer yet there is nothing in our stock on market series or vacancy rates to suggest the party in Darwin is over yet.

Brisbane: Asking prices up 0.3% for houses and down 0.9% for units in April

There is just nothing to write home about on the Brisbane housing market right now. It is flat to slightly falling to slightly rising depending upon the location. Confidence is not exactly high on the Brisbane housing market at the moment, but it has been worse. The big question is how would a major mining downturn affect the Brisbane market? Perhaps we are seeing some evidence of this now as there just doesn’t seem to be any major response to the cuts in interest rates in this capital city.

Adelaide: Asking prices unchanged for houses and up 0.4% for units in April

Like Brisbane, the Adelaide market is flat as a tack. This fits with listings levels, which have largely been unchanged over the past two years. Though we note a bit of a decline in rental vacancy rates. Other than this, there is not much to write about Adelaide. It’s a very flat market.

Hobart: Asking prices up 0.2% for houses and up 1.0% for units in April

This follows on from a slight rise in the March Quarter and when considering the chart, it seems there might be a new upward trend for the Hobart real estate market. Are the interest rate cuts finally helping? Well, it maybe so, however there is still a lot of stock to absorb first. Though we note that rental vacancy rates have been falling of late, so there may be something to this.

Melbourne: Asking prices down 0.8% for houses and up 0.1% for units in April

Despite reported bullishness on auction clearance rates, vendors are still not confident to lift their asking prices. There was a period before December where vendors became a little excited but since then…nothing if not a slight waning in vendor expectations. Still we have some faith that there will be a stronger response from buyers. Have a read of our recent Melbourne Housing Boom and Bust Report for more information.

Perth: Asking prices up 1.5% for houses and up 1.3% for units in April

There is not much stopping the Perth housing market right now. The April rise just continues on from the December quarter. If the Reserve Bank cuts rates again, the housing market will continue to rise for the remainder of the year. It is not widely recognised that this market is actually far more sensitive to interest rate settings. Not many individuals are aware that Perth entered into a downturn in late 2006, sometime before the GFC and it was because of rises in interest rate for that year.