Temporary immigration booms

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By Leith van Onselen

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) today released visitor arrivals and departures data for the month of March, which revealed surging net temporary migration into Australia, but falling net permanent migration.

In the year to March 2013, permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia hit their highest ever level of 671,130 people, partly offset by 370,320 permanent and long-term departures from Australia (see next chart).

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There were 300,810 net permanent and long-term arrivals into Australia in the year to March 2013, representing a 50% increase from the January 2011 trough and more than double the long-run average (see next chart).

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However, while overall net long-term arrivals are booming, it is a different story for permanent migration. In the year to March 2013, permanent arrivals fell by -1% to 152,470, whereas permanent departures rose 3% to their highest ever level of 90,460 (see next chart).

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In fact, net permanent arrivals into Australia fell for the seventh consecutive month and are now tracking -7% below the long-run average (see next chart).

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Clearly, much of the recent immigration into Australia has been temporary. What is not certain is the extent to which temporary long-term arrivals end up becoming permanent residents.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.