The Queensland Department of Environment and Resource Management (DERM) yesterday released data on housing transfers and mortgage lodgements for the months of March and April.
According to DERM, the number of housing transfers rose by 2.6% in March and by 10.6% in April. Similarly, the number of mortgage lodgements increased by 1.8% in March and by 11.9% in April (see next chart).
On a year-on-year basis, however, transfers fell by -6.0% in March before recovering by 10.5% in April. Similarly, mortgage transfers fell by -9.8% in March before recovering by 6.4% in April (see next chart).
You can see that Queensland transfers and mortgage lodgements had been in an up-trend since late-2011, but then stalled, showing minimal if any growth since late-2012. They also remain depressed overall, tracking -27% (transfers) and -29% (mortgages) respectively below the 13-year average in the year to April 2013.
While the evidence is by no means clear-cut, the stalling of activity since late-2012 could suggest that the mid-October change to the First Home Buyers’ Grant, which saw the Grant removed from pre-existing dwellings and shifted to new dwellings only, could be suppressing overall mortgage demand and the volume of transactions, halting the nascent housing recovery.
