The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has released dwelling approvals data for the month of April. At the national level, the number of dwelling approvals rose by a seasonally adjusted 9.1% to 13,774. The increase was driven by a surge in unit & apartment approvals, which rose by 18.0% over the month. By contrast, house approvals rose by a more moderate 2.5% Consensus was for a total rise in approvals of 4.0% over the month.
In the year to April 2013, dwelling approvals rose by a seasonally-adjusted 27.3%, with both detached houses (+18.9%) and units & apartment approvals (+37.2%) rising:
A chart showing the time series of seasonally-adjusted dwelling approvals at the national level is provided below, split-out by detached houses and units & apartments:
As you can see, dwelling approvals nationally were trending down since early 2010, but received a large boost in May and June 2012 when the number of unit & apartment approvals bounced. This unit and apartments boom has been volatile ever since, but has effectively tracked sideways. House approvals have recovered, but remain very weak overall.
In annual terms, dwelling approvals are running marginally above their long-term average levels, as shown by the below chart, with weakness in detached house approvals mostly offset by strength in unit & apartment approvals. However, approvals remain highly depressed overall in population-adjusted terms, given that Australia’s population has grown by around 45% over the past 30-years.
The below chart shows the time-series of approvals at the state level:
This month’s pick-up in approvals was driven primarily by New South Wales, where approvals rose by 33% over the month, mostly on the back of increased units & apartments (up 65%).
And the same data is shown below on a 3-month moving average basis, in order to smooth volatility. As you can see, dwelling approvals are in a short-term uptrend in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia, whereas they are trending down in Victoria and are going sideways in South Australia:
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