New home sales recover lost ground

HIA new home sales are out today and recovered some of the ground lost in February:

Capture

New home sales bounced back in March to maintain the modest recovery underway from the record lows reached in 2012, said the Housing Industry Association, the voice of Australia’s home building industry.

The HIA New Home Sales report, a survey of Australia’s largest volume builders, showed that total seasonally adjusted new home sales increased by 4.2 per cent in March 2013, taking sales back to volumes comparable to 12 months ago. In the month of March new detached house sales increased by 3.9 per cent following a 4.0 per cent decline in February. Sales of multi-units rose by 5.6 per cent in March after dropping by 11.0 per cent in February.

That’s some better news than the PMI but take a longer term look at the above chart and you will see that since the rate cut campaign began in late 2011, sales have gone absolutely nowhere. Full release below.

2013-03 NHSS National Media Release by Belinda Winkelman

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Comments

  1. The Patrician

    Sep 2012 Qld and NSW remove FHBG on pre-existing properties.

    Sep 2012 to Mar 2013 monthly new home sales up ~20%.

    Who’d have thunk it?

  2. surfbeach2536

    If my maths is right (please correct me if i am wrong)a quick extrapolated estimate indicates we get 72,000 new homes this year and a population increase of 379,951.81 (ABS 1 person ever 1 min and 23 seconds)then we only have one new dwelling for every 5.28 people.

    We are getting a denser population without the equivalent increase in building density. Seems that no matter how leveraged we are prices will rise eventually due to unmet demand. Does anyone agree?

      • Peter Fraser

        True to a point. That is the USA experience although as wages and income come back they are experiencing shortages in many areas and prices are moving back up.

        Regretfully elasticity doesn’t equal tolerance, eventually mother in laws gets tired of toe nail clippings on the carpet and empty beer bottles beside the lounge chair, and she will ask impolitely if you could pack up and leave within the next 30 seconds. She may even fund the bus fare to that town called “Somewhere, Anywhere, but not Here”

        It can work in the short term though.

    • The Patrician

      HIA’s developers/builders are SELLING 72,000 new dwellings.

      We are BUILDING 150,000 new dwellings per year..and have been for the last 10yrs. See the above chart.

      • surfbeach2536

        Pat you are on the right track, my misinterpretation the HIA survey is of the largest 100 builders in Aus according to the HIA’s economist and the ABS is of all. Please ignore my first blog.

    • russellsmith55

      Nope. But nice try at finding a new and exciting way to justify historically elevated prices.

      • surfbeach2536

        If it is me alone who is trying to help this nation out of the doom and gloom predicted here we have no hope. Can someone help me? 🙂

        • No one relishes the pain that lies in store for the Australian economy. I know I’d rather be optimistic about the future. I don’t wish a recession or its consequences on the country I love – but we surely deserve it.

    • Matching raw population with new homes is like comparing apples with oranges as around half of that number is “churn” including 2nd year backpackers, plus 457 visas, international students and dependents.

      Qualitatively, most if not all of these temps do not buy property, many 457s lesser extent backpackers are in regional areas, many students do home stays (helping pay off the mortgage), and most tend to rent/share apartments mostly, and houses.

    • 379k? Really. We will get 300k babies and that will not mean any new houses and about 159k deaths and that may mean more supply. We will get about 100k permanent arrivals and that may mean more demand, however we will have approx 90k leave permanently and that will increase supply. The rest that come are temp visa holders, students and working visa bots, so no need for new builds there.

      23% of our homes are lone occupants and 10% have 5 or more people. The bs about population growth meaning the Neeed for more houses based on 2.6 people per house is complete BS.

    • Also how many houses are for sale on the RE market, I think last count there was approx 50,000 houses/units/apartments for sale in Victoria alone. Until these figures drop no price increase I am afraid

      • The Patrician

        +1 A “stock on market” update would be helpful, if any one has some recent data.