Bloxham elects the death of a thousand cuts

OLYMPUS DIGITAL CAMERA

Paul Boxham is out with a note this morning changing his hawkish rate call by pushing out his fist hike by one quarter:

Inflation is low enough for the RBA to consider a rate cut: but demand is lifting, albeit modestly, so we expect them to hold

  • Low rates are already gaining traction, supporting a rise in retail sales and housing prices, although building approvals and consumer sentiment have eased back a bit
  • We have changed our medium-term view: given lower Chinese growth, continued AUD strength and low local inflation, we now don’t expect a rate rise until early 2014

A word of advice. When you’re wrong, it’s much better to say so, take the pain, and move on. Death by a thousand cuts only prolongs the damage. Bloxo’s new forecasts are:

Capture

130503 the RBA Observer – A Close Call, But We Still Expect Them to Hold

David Llewellyn-Smith

Comments

  1. Who wants to bet that Brilliant Bloxo has been reading this site in the last week?

  2. “When you’re wrong, it’s much better to say so, take the pain, and move on.” And who does that, these days?! Certainly not the RBA/RBNZ….

  3. Cut them rates and turn on the printing presses. Smash the dollar bubble and move on.