ANZ calls it “tentative stabilisation”. Hmmm, probably fair but it might just as easily be couched as “still bleeding”:
Job advertisements declined 1.3% m/m in April after falling by a revised 0.5% m/m in March. Despite this recent softness, the level of job advertisements on the internet and in newspapers was higher than at the end of last year but remained 25% below their most recent peak at the start of 2011. In trend terms, job advertising rose 0.2% m/m in April to be 17% below year-ago levels.
While job advertising on the internet declined 1.1% m/m in April, newspaper job ads fell 6.5% m/m. This likely reflects effects from the timing of Easter and ANZAC day this year.
With the exception of Tasmania, newspaper job advertising fell in all states & territories. There were particularly large falls in Queensland, the ACT and the Northern Territory, although the latter is typically very volatile.
Job advertising weakened moderately in April, after signs of stabilisation in the early months of 2013. This followed notable weakness at the end of last year. ANZ notes that the timing of Easter and ANZAC Day may have acted to reduce the number of jobs advertised in the month, something which the seasonal adjustment process may not fully capture. As such, it is too early to conclude that job advertising has begun a renewed decline, though anecdotal reports suggest job advertising in mining and related construction activity continues to ease. Indicative of the potential for some seasonal adjustment issues, newspaper job ads dropped 6.5% m/m, while internet advertising fell only 1.1% m/m.
Looking across the states, newspaper job advertising is in relatively strong decline in all states and territories except for NSW, with advertising particularly weak in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia. Outsized declines in the month in the ACT and the Northern Territory (>-20% m/m), strongly suggest Easter and ANZAC Day effects and the movements should be disregarded unless confirmed next month. The most encouraging sign in the data remains the tentative improved performance in NSW, a development consistent across a range of macroeconomic indicators.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
