Weekly RP Data house price update

ScreenHunter_03 Apr. 02 11.00

By Leith van Onselen

In the week ended 25 April 2013, the RP Data-Rismark 5-city daily dwelling price index, which covers the five major capital city markets, recorded a -0.34% fall, which followed last week’s 0.20% decline (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_01 Apr. 25 15.22

All major capitals, except Adelaide, recorded declines (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_02 Apr. 25 15.24

Values are down -0.56% so far in April, again with all capitals, except Adelaide, experiencing losses (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_03 Apr. 25 15.26

Over the past 12 months, values have risen by 2.41% at the 5-city level, with all major markets experiencing increases (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_04 Apr. 25 15.27

The next chart plots the daily movements on a 14-day moving average, in order to smooth volatility. As you can see, all major capitals except Adelaide are in an uptrend (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_05 Apr. 25 15.28

Values are down -3.7% since peak at the 5-city level, with all major capitals in negative territory, but with Sydney only marginally under water (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_06 Apr. 25 15.29

However, major capital home values have now gained 4.0% since bottoming in May 2012, with all capitals rebounding (see next chart).

ScreenHunter_07 Apr. 25 15.31

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  1. reusachtigeMEMBER

    News like this gives me hope that the collapse in housing is back on, if this is the best that our emergency level interest rates can deliver.

  2. All these weeks ups and downs appears to be seasonality. That’s the confusing part of the daily index

    • Fabian AlderseyMEMBER

      Yep, looks similar to this time last year but more volatile (larger movements both up and down). Last year saw a couple of months of solid falls from here on in.

      But of course, the past isn’t a reliable indicator of the future, so who knows…

      • In Adelaide, 13 out of 15 Auctions sold last week, previous week it was 2 out of 4.

        While I developed an interest in thes trends since I’m thinking of selling, I just realised how much “noise” may be in this system, and how unreliable the short-term “trends” may be.

        I live in Randwick, and a house went to auction on our street, was passed in @ $1.6m, and was then listed @ $1.8 m, and still remains listed. A week later, it appeared in RP Data as “sold for $0.625m. When I queried this ( a 5 br home selling for about half land value should have rung some analysts’ alarm bells) , RP Data removed it from their listings, saying this is clearly an error, and that they rely on agents feedback for recent sales, which are then verified some months later. However, it still featured in their calculations of median house price for the suburb for March. If this one data point was to be removed, the suburb median price change for March would have gane from the -ive 9.3 %shown, to approx +ive 2%.

      • The Mel-Ad movement is interesting. About 1-2 month correlated delay between Melbourne and Adelaide.

        Perth is looking very peakish.

  3. Er, I suspect that Leith got interrupted as he was editing this sentence: “As you can see, all major capitals except Adelaide are in an uptrend (see next chart).”

    • Oh! 😛 Of course Leith’s “uptrend” refers to the last ten months. But, as you may infer from my comments below, my attention was arrested by the shorter-term fluctuations.

  4. The interest-rate cuts of Oct/Dec, like those of May/Jun 2012, revived prices for a while; then they turned down again. The RBA must be thinking it’s time for another heroin fix.

  5. good news, although only 2 weeks. Might indicate the first quarter was a dead cat bounce? Lets not forget that the share market was also firing great guns over Nov/dec/jan/Feb so this feel good effect may well have filtered into housing and maybe provided some additional funds for purchases. Fingers crossed, although the RBA may use news like this to do a 50bps cut. And when that fails you can implement UK style assistance, more immigrants etc etc etc.