The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released dwelling approvals data for the month of February. At the national level, the number of dwelling approvals rose by a seasonally adjusted 3.1% to 13,371, with both detached house (+4.2%) and apartment (+1.6%) approvals rising. Consensus was for a total rise of 2.5% over the month.
In the year to February 2013, dwelling approvals rose by a seasonally-adjusted 12.8%, again with both detached houses (+2.3%) and apartments (+23.0%) experiencing increases (see next table).
A chart showing the time series of seasonally-adjusted dwelling approvals at the national level is provided below, split-out by detached houses and units & apartments:
As you can see, dwelling approvals nationally were trending down since early 2010, but received a large boost in May and June 2012 when the number of unit & apartment approvals bounced. This unit and apartments boom has been volatile ever since, but has effectively tracked sideways.
Dwelling approvals are now running at around their long-term average levels, as shown by the below chart, with weakness in detached house approvals mostly offset by strength in unit & apartment approvals. However, approvals remain highly depressed overall in population-adjusted terms, given that Australia’s population has grown by around 45% over the past 30-years.
The below chart shows the time-series of approvals at the state level:
And the same data is shown below on a 3-month moving average basis, in order to smooth volatility. As you can see, dwelling approvals are trending-up in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia, whereas they are trending down in Victoria and are going sideways in South Australia:
Monthly increases in approvals were recorded in Queensland (+4%), Western Australia (+5%), South Australia (+23%), the ACT (+94%), and the Northern Territory (+184%), whereas approvals fell in New South Wales (-8%) and Tasmania (-5%). Approvals in Victoria, by comparison, were flat.
