The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released dwelling approvals data for the month of January. At the national level, the number of dwelling approvals fell by a seasonally adjusted -2.4% to 12,920, with heavy falls recorded in the apartment segment (-9.1%) partly offset by a 3.2% rise in house approvals. Consensus was for a total rise of 2.8% over the month.
However, December’s result was revised upwards to 13,244 units from 12,767, meaning that an increase in approvals would have been recorded over the month were it not for the previous month’s upwards revision.
In the year to January 2013, dwelling approvals rose by a seasonally-adjusted 9.9%, with the -2.1% fall in house approvals more than offset by a 34.9% rise in apartment approvals (see next table).
A chart showing the time series of seasonally-adjusted dwelling approvals at the national level is provided below, split-out by detached houses and units & apartments:
As you can see, dwelling approvals nationally were trending down since early 2010, but received a large boost in May and June 2012 when the number of unit & apartment approvals bounced. This unit and apartments boom has been volatile ever since, retracing and then recovering, before retracing again.
Dwelling approvals are now running just below long-term average levels, as shown by the below chart, with severe weakness in detached house approvals mostly offset by strength in unit & apartment approvals. However, approvals remain highly depressed overall in population-adjusted terms, given that Australia’s population has grown by around 45% over the past 30-years.
The below chart shows the time-series of approvals at the state level:
Monthly falls were recorded in New South Wales (-1%), Victoria (-3%), Queensland (-6%), South Australia (-3%), the ACT (-32%), and the Northern Territory (-24%). By contrast, increases were recorded in Western Australia (+3%) and Tasmania (+14%).
