Macro Morning: G7 vs the Australian dollar

See the latest Australian dollar analysis here:

Macro Afternoon

It’s hard to compete with the big news story of the Pope’s resignation but there is an analogy here for markets. I am not a Papal scholar but there are many reports that this is a first resignation by a Pope for more than 600 years. So we might term this a Catholic Church “Black Swan”. Just something worth remembering.

So to the markets and it seems having opened the currency war Pandora’s Box the big countries have been spooked by the Venezuelan move to devalue the Bolivar so aggressively with news that G7 is going to make a statement this week on the very topic of currency rates amid the broader G20 meeting taking place in Russia. The Wall Street Journal reports this morning that:

U.S. and European financial policy makers are discussing issuing a joint message designed to head off a potentially destabilizing round of currency devaluations, according to people familiar with the talks.

The focus of any message would be to reinforce a commitment within the G-7 to have exchange rates determined by market forces, not unilateral currency interventions.

Of course getting a joint communique from the G7 is going to be difficult given Japan’s recent overt attempt to weaken the Yen, as well as QE in the US and UK but hey! Given the speed with which USDJPY hit 94 it may be possible that Finance Minister Aso’s comments were already preparing the ground for such a joint statement.

Comments by Bundesbank boss Jens Weidmann overnight suggest that Germany is not keen on what Venezuela has done nor does he see it as a global panacea. On the euro specifically he said that nothing in the recent moves of the euro showed signs of serious over valuation and pointedly warned:

“If more and more countries attempt to depress their currencies, this could lead to competitive devaluations that will only know losers,”

Yep it is fairly clear that the actions of Venezuela have taken the big guys by surprise and they fear that this might be the thin end of the wedge. Do as we say not do as we do.

As a result of Weidmann’s comment on the not overvalued status of the euro, it rallied from support at our slow moving average to a high on our fast moving average. The euro made a low of 1.3324 before rallying to a high of 1.3427 to sit up 0.41% at 1.3413. This also had its impact on the euro crosses which were stronger across the board.

The Aussie dollar’s low of 1.0262 was just a couple of points below the first support in terms of the pivot point for the AUDUSD yesterday at 1.0265 but it is still under pressure at 1.0286 this morning down 0.33%. There is supposed to be significant institutional support below 1.03 according to the weekly outlooks from the majors that hit my Inbox yesterday with Westpac saying:

Ongoing local data weakness, lingering spec positioning overhang and RBA easing hints have helped produce lows since Oct. But with -50bp already priced by Oct and China data momentum intact into the lunar new year, AUD/USD should find buyers below 1.03 on the week.

But the Aussie is still looking weak as you can see in the chart below. A weak day followed by a volatile but stronger day that is then followed by a volatile but weaker day tells us the market is trying to figure the next move. It could be a base or it could be a bit of volatility before the next leg lower. Both our daily trend following systems are still short, 1.0207 is a big downside level.

In other currency news GBP was lower again under pressure through the EURGBP rally it would seem. Against the USD Sterling is down 0.72% at 1.5677. USDJPY was higher back at 93.45 this morning up 0.67% and the USDCAD rate rose through but is just below the big long term mid line we have been watching. It sits up 0.38% at 1.0059.

On the stock markets the FTSE managed to rally 0.21%, the Dax fell 0.24% and the CAC was essentially flat at +0.03%. Spanish stocks were pushed sharply lower down 1.17% with Milan off 0.60%. There has been a lot of technical damage to the DAX lately so it is no surprise that it is underperforming as the FTSE tries to get back to the recent multi-year highs.

In the US with an half an hour to go before the close the Dow is down 0.15%, the S&P is down 0.06% and the Nasdaq fell 0.12%.

On commodity markets gold slipped lower and I retain my long held view it will fall heavily in coming months. As it stands at the moment it is simply falling within a multi-month downtrend from last year. $1620 and maybe $1592 seem reasonable levels to be targeting.

gold, gold price quote, xau, xauusd, gold daily chart

Oil rallied 1.30% to $96.96 Bbl and our thoughts that it was going lower seem a little out of place, at least overnight. As noted above gold fell 1% to $1649 oz while silver was off 1.46% to $30.96. Copper fell almost 1% and the Ags were sold heavily with corn down 1.02%, wheat off 1.82% and soybeans fell 1.27%.

Lets have a look at some Meta 4 charts from my  AVATrade platform.


For the moment this remains a corrective move in the euro but looking at the shorter term chart the rally was strong at over 1 big figure but it would need to take out 1.3490 to kick higher.:

eur, eurusd, euro, euro (eur) price quote, eur 4 hour chart


Aussie is still looking weak as you can see in the chart below:

aud, audusd, australian dollar, australian dollar price quote, audusd


Chinese New Year holiday’s.

NAB Business Survey today, January monthly. Before a raft of northern hemisphere CPI and PPI data and a speech from Draghi tonight.

Twitter: Greg McKenna

Here are how some of the markets we follow looked at 7.22am morning

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  1. Thanks Greg…nice summary.

    It’s amazing the arrogance of G7 especially Western nations. It’s the same arrogance at work telling the rest of the world they have to finance us to live in the manner to which we have become accustomed….and we expect it all to magically end well because we need it to do so.

    Maybe I better buy some Euros if I’m going back thee this year!!!

    • ‘It’s amazing the arrogance of G7 especially Western nations.’

      You can say that again. At the moment not a single one of them has their economic act together. But they will go heavy on lecturing others, and browbeating them through global organisations if the lecturing doesnt get up.

  2. Any chance of an AUD spike in the next few days?
    Ill be in the States and Europe for the next few weeks doing my retail shopping that I refuse to do here.

  3. Clive Maund
    The US Treasury market is the grand aorta of the US economy, which enables the goods and services of the rest of the world to be exchanged for piles of intrinsically worthless paper, thus allowing the US to live way beyond its means. As such, the Fed and US government can be expected to defend it with every means at their disposal. Right now it is under stress after its recent decline and in danger of crashing key support which could trigger a tidal wave of selling, as we can see on the chart below for the proxy iShares Barclays 20+year T-bond Fund. With both the dollar and Treasuries on the verge of tanking, it is clearly time for some really big levers to be pulled, and the most effective way to sluice funds into the dollar and Treasuries is to engineer another deflationary scare involving pulling the plug on the commodity and stockmarkets, and given the vastly greater importance of the Treasury market, the Fed would have no qualms about doing this. Such a scare would also provide a politically favorable environment for cranking up QE to even greater levels. While this is only a theory at this point, the logic behind it is plain – and it explains the current positions held by the powerful Commercials, who are at the top of the market food chain.