Two leading indexes are out for Australia this morning. The first, offered by Westpac, is rallying nicely:
The annualised growth rate of the Westpac Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months into the future, was 4.3% in December, above its long term trend of 2.8%. The annualised growth rate of the Coincident Index, which gives a pulse of current activity, was 2.3%, below its long term trend of 3.0%.
The Westpac commentary remains skeptical of its own index, for good reason, the coincident reading has been a much better guide to future conditions for some time now.
Meanwhile the better Conference Board index weakened a little and is caught in a wee downtrend:
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
