And so, as I pondered mid-last year, democracy returns to Italy and brings with a new round of political instability.
While the rest of Europe hoped Italy would swallow the bitter bill of austerity by voting in Bersani coupled with Mario Monti, the Italians themselves have had other ideas. It appears there has been a huge protest vote towards both Berlusconi and Beppe Grillo and the most likely outcome now is a hung parliament, especially since Grillo has already stated he has no interest in forming a coalition.
The upper house, the Senate, does not have a clear winner even though Berlusconi is ahead in that house, but Grillo has the number to ensure no majority. In the lower house the count is too close to call with Grillo, Berlusconi and Bersani all possibilities, although in late counting it maybe Grillo’s 5 star movement that comes out ahead, but again without a coalition partner it is all for zero.
Either way, the outcome is a huge blow to the rest of Europe, both Grillo’s and Berlusconi’s campaigns were populist and underscored with anti-European anti-austerity rhetoric. The failure of Mario Monti to make the successful transition from technocrat to viable politician just adds insult to injury and his vote will not be large enough to help Bersani form a viable government.
What happens next is anyone’s guess, but there is no doubt this is a huge issue for the rest of the Eurozone, particularly Angela Merkel who has her own elections to deal with later this year.
The only available option without a new election is some sort of unified coalition but given the disparity between the political positions of the 3 major leaders suggests this is probably an impossibility. It looks like Italy is heading for a hung parliament, followed by months of stalling and finally by another election.
In short, the citizens of a country have finally used their democratic right to say they don’t want to do what leaders in Brussels and Berlin demand.
What happens next will be most interesting.