Reaction to trade data

By Leith van Onselen

Following on from my earlier post on November’s goods and services trade data released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), please find below ANZ Bank’s take:

• Australia’s trade deficit widened by more than expected in November to AUD2.637bn (mkt: AUD2.3bn). However, the miss relative to market expectations can be wholly explained by historical revisions, with the trade deficit revised around AUD350mn wider in October to AUD2.443bn. This was mostly due to higher imports than previously measured. Revisions of this type have been common over the past year or so, partly because the ABS has difficulty accurately measuring resources-related imports (capital and services) in real time.

• The value of exports rose 1.2% m/m in November, a little less than we had expected but this was largely due to a steep 9% m/m fall in the volatile non-monetary gold component. Excluding this category, export values were up a healthy 2% m/m. Metal ores and minerals exports rose by a strong 6.2% m/m, in part due to higher iron ore prices on our reckoning, but coal and other resource exports declined. Manufacturing, rural and services exports all rose solidly in the month.

• The value of imports rose 1.8% m/m, which was slightly lower than foreshadowed by the ABS merchandise imports release. Excluding lumpy goods, ‘core’ imports were 2.2% m/m higher.

Full report below…
ANZ Trade Nov 12 Quick Reaction