Find below the result of Bloomie’s recent survey of major economists and their views on the Australian economy in 2013:
Make of that what you will. The growth rate looks about right, assuming stronger in the first half and weakening in the second. The unemployment rate looks conservative to me. As do projections of the current account deficit. If we’re going grow enough to keep unemployment in the 5.5 range, and mining as well as government shrink, then growth will be driven by credit expansion and suck in more imports. If not, then unemployment will be higher. Rates look about right too, though there is a decent likelihood of a second cut in the second half, as markets are suggesting.
The same survey puts the chance of recession at only 8%. I would probably triple that but for me the real risk is 2014.
