From AAP:
Deloitte Access Economics expects the mega-resources investment projects that have been a major driver of economic growth in recent years will likely peak in late 2013.
In its latest Investment Monitor released on Thursday, partner David Rumbens says the top 10 planned projects worth $126 billion are due to get the final nod this year.
Readers will know I’m more in the RBA bearish camp that investment will peak in the June or September quarter but that’s neither here nor there. The point is it’s coming. Half of the planned investment decisions that could prevent a sharp decline are the two LNG projects, Woodside’s Browse and Arrow LNG. I do not expect either of these will go ahead now that US shale gas looms as a real threat on the cost curve around or just above Australian projects.
The rest is largely made up of iron ore and coal projects, most of which I do not expect to get approval either. The current iron ore spike might be enough to get Roy Hill over the line. But that’s dicey too. The remarkably swift resumption of FMG’s King’s project was designed to knock out any more serious competitors in the $80 per tonne range.
The decline from peak will likely be steep but here’s hoping!
