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Some of the sting has gone out of next week’s December quarter CPI release because the RBA is unlikely to cut in February unless iron ore falls off its perch.
Still, a soft reading might give them pause and if TD Securities monthly inflation is any guide, the number will be soft. Westpac certainly thinks so, forecasting just 0.2% for the quarter.
For contrast, NAB sees 0.7%, which would most definitely kibosh any chance of cut.
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Find the previews below.
er20130117BullCPIpreview2012Q4.pdf
2013-01-18_CPI_preview.pdf by Belinda Winkelman
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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