QLD mortgages retrace after FHOG boom

By Leith van Onselen

The Queensland Department of Environment and Resource Management (DERM) has released data on housing transfers and mortgage lodgements for the month of November.

According to DERM, the number of housing transfers and mortgage lodgements fell by -7.9% and -7.2% respectively in November 2012, but were up 9.9% and 4.9% respectively on November 2011. The falls partly reversed October’s surge, where transaction volumes and mortgage lodgements were positively impacted by a pull-forward of demand arising from the mid-October cancellation of the first home owner’s grant on pre-existing dwellings.

Finally, the below chart shows the same transfers and mortgage lodgements data on a rolling annual basis, which removes the month-to-month volatility:

You can see that Queensland transfers and mortgage lodgements have been in an up-trend since late-2011. However, they still remain depressed, tracking -23% (transfers) and -24% (mortgages) respectively below the 12-year monthly average in November.

Twitter: Leith van Onselen. Leith is the Chief Economist of Macro Investor, Australia’s independent investment newsletter covering trades, stocks, property and yield. Click for a free 21 day trial.

Comments

  1. Hard to say, there must have been some pull forward to beat the FHOG deadline.

    The process of choosing land and a builder, as well as house plans takes longer than a decision to buy an existing home.

    I think that it will be some months before we get a clear picture.

  2. Peter F, the other day you were saying many people on this website had no idea what they were talking about, and that they should see an expert adviser.

    Now you seem to imply that DERM may not be correct and that we should wait a while, yet DERM has a number of experts in their field doing just that.

    Seems that anything negative from so called experts you downplay and say we should wait a couple of months. So, can you tell me how long we should wait since you are an expert before we can say yes, its really not looking too good, or does your couple of months keep getting extended by a couple of months ?

    • You misinterpret – I think that a whole lot of people here do know what they are talking about and I thoroughly enjoy their posts, and I hope that their posts challenge my thinking, because we all need that.

      I do have the view that some here who comment have been educated to believe that they are always correct and they are dismissive of other views, that’s a problem for them. They are not open minded.

      As for my comment above I was considering the data and airing some thoughts. If you have a good argument that is contrary to my thoughts then please enlighten me, I would love to hear it. But if you are just posting to criticise because you don’t have the intellectual capacity to accept and process different views that may not align with yours, then you have my sincere condolences, because that puts you in the wrong group, to your detriment.

  3. I’d have thought the rolling 12 month average shows a clear trend that Qld has increasing new mortgage activity which will assist the State with stamp duty income. I would think it is likely to also represent increased rate of mortgage credit growth.

    But where are
    1. the overall credit figures for mortgage credit growth, and
    2 Mortgage discharges.

    The mortgage credit growth seems to be the number to watch based on Steve Keen’s work on the mortgage lending pulse effect on land prices (including land with dwellings on them – the dwelling component increases a few percent for new dwellings but is offset by falls in value of the building over time through use and changes in fashion and often maintenance not carried out (or not carried out professionally).