I think I’m actually starting to feel sorry for the Queensland Premier, Campbell Newman.
I know I’ve stated previously that I have concerns over the state of Queensland politics along with Mr Newman’s understanding of economics. That his current plan for Queensland appears far too ideologically driven for my liking and that there was a fair chance that it could all backfire. Add to that some delusional statements about the state’s future economic growth in an environment of low commodities prices, low housing transaction volumes, low credit growth and fiscal tightening and I think I am rightly concerned.
But that doesn’t change the fact that Mr Newman came to power almost to the day that the world woke up to the end of the Australian commodities boom and ever since the Queensland Treasury has been revising down its budget balance even though Mr Newman’s government has implemented a platform of cost cutting.
Queensland’s economic outlook has deteriorated this financial year, with the budget deficit blowing out by $400 million, mostly because of lower-than-expected coal royalties.
Treasurer Tim Nicholls said the operating deficit was expected to total $6.69 billion in 2012-13 – the worst in the state’s history – with economic and employment growth downgraded as economic conditions worsen.
But Mr Nicholls said the Liberal National Party would still deliver a budget surplus in 2014-15.
“If we don’t try to get a surplus the ratings agencies will downgrade us further,” Mr Nicholls told reporters in Brisbane on Thursday.
“We believe we have taken the tough decisions, we haven’t shirked away from them, and we believe a fiscal surplus in 2014-15 is achievable.”
So much like Wayne Swan, Mr Newman has made his budget surplus a political imperative which, given the current global and local economic outlook, is potential economic suicide. In fact, if Queensland remains on its current economic trajectory, there is a chance that the state will see another credit rating downgrade warning before Mr Newman finishes his first term.
The point is, however, that even if you are the best of politicians trying to do the best by everyone if the economy starts to slide, even if it’s not your fault, you’ll ultimately be blamed. I’m not suggesting that this description applies directly to Mr Newman, but in regards to the circumstances and timing of his run to power he really has been handed what appears to be an un-polishable turd.