Auction clearance rates dip again

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By Leith van Onselen

The Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV) reported a provisional auction clearance rate of 6o% on 853 results reported to the REIV. This compares to a provisional clearance rate of 61% recorded last weekend on 886 auctions, which remained steady once late results were chased-up. With 950 auctions initially planned over the weekend, there are a large number of missing results, which will likely lead to the clearance rate being downgraded as further results arrive.

Although this week’s reported clearance rate is once again a bit rubbery, given the high number of missing results, it is still way above the same weekend of last year, where a clearance rate of only 52% was recorded.

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The auction clearance rate for the month of November was 61%, with 1,694 homes selling out of 2,792 auctions held. This compares to a clearance rate of 64% recorded in October on 3,150 auctions. Victorian auction results for the past five years are shown in the below REIV chart:

Taking a long-term view, recent auction results in Victoria remain fairly weak. According to the REIV, Victoria’s average auction clearance rate since 1981 has been 66%, with an average clearance rate of 71% recorded in the decade to 2010.

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In New South Wales, where auction data is less transparent and accessible, a provisional clearance rate of 57% was recorded on 442 auctions. However, there were 163 auctions with “no result” rendering the headline clearance rate next to useless:

Last weekend’s clearance rate of 61% reported by the REIV was, once again, above that published by RP Data later in the week, which recorded a clearance rate of only 58% for Melbourne. The clearance rate for Sydney was also only 50% on 591 auctions, according to RP Data.

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The REIV expects the high auction volumes to continue, with 970 auctions planned for next weekend.

Twitter: Leith van Onselen. Leith is the Chief Economist of Macro Investor, Australia’s independent investment newsletter covering trades, stocks, property and yield. Click for a free 21 day trial.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.